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The strongest case [url=http://www.gotprintsigns.com/monclerpascher/]moncler pas cher[/url] I've read so [url=http://www.gotprintsigns.com/hollisterpascher/]hollister[/url] far that we face a prolonged period of deflation comes from a speech [url=http://www.achbanker.com/home.php]hollister[/url] by Adam Posen in his capacity as a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Board (MPC). Histalklays out a compelling discussion as to the reasons why we aren't in danger of inflation right now and why more aggressive action is needed from central banking institutions.
1) there's not much likelihood of inflation because so much productive capacity (labour and machinery) has been idled but it's not been destroyed. In [url=http://www.gotprintsigns.com/uggpascher/]ugg pas cher[/url] The United Kingdom, for example, he cites research showing that without the crisis total output [url=http://www.getconversational.com]hollister pas cher[/url] (ie the scale of the [url=http://www.sandvikfw.net/shopuk.php]hollister sale[/url] economy) would now be 10% bigger than it now is. The facility to produce products and services to that extent isn't totally gone. Workers are still ready to work and many factories have simply closed a single production line or gone to shorter hours. But they have not dumped many factories. So that the economy could grow at a cracking pace without putting pressure on salary and costs.
For more detail you really need to read Posen’s talk in full. It runs to 38 pages so will take a little while, but makes for motivating reading.
As for the investment conclusion – if you suspect as he does that we face extended deflation then the assets you want to be holding are state bonds, perhaps even truly long-term ones. If Central Banking Institutions push rates down (ie yields) by even 1/4 of a p.c. point then there's serious money to be made. Bonds could be in a bubble, particularly if you're thinking about holding them for a particularly long period but for now with economies slowing, deflation a threat and central banking organizations moving more aggressively it looks that there may still be some legs left in yields.
In short his main points are:
2) Central Banks need to do more, but can not do much more [url=http://www.gotprintsigns.com/abercrombiepascher/]abercrombie soldes[/url] with rates alone, so they have to start buying assets and carry on doing so till they start seeing the economy moving in the correct direction (ie focus on the result, not the amount spent).
Like most individuals who follow markets, I have spent the previous 2 years unsure between concerns that inflation will take off again as a result of the quick cash being pumped into the economy and between the opposite anxiousness that we may actually slip into deflation due to the depth [url=http://www.orlando-apts.com/nfljerseys/]cheap nfl jerseys[/url] of the commercial slowdown.
Markets themselves have yet to [url=http://www.1855sacramento.com/woolrich.php]woolrich parka[/url] reach agreement on this subject. Bond markets seem to be pricing in a lengthened period of deflation with yields on 10 year administration bonds at wafer-thin levels, yet when one examines the costs of inflation-linked bonds, it also becomes clear that a decent number of financiers are [url=http://www.gotprintsigns.com/jordanpascher/]jordan pas cher[/url] buying cover [url=http://www.getconversational.com]hollister france[/url] against inflation.
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